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Carbon Assimilation and Modelling of the European Land Surfaces

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Model Validation and Uncertainity Analysis
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Lead Contractor:            MPI-BGC
Other Participating Institutes:  MetO, CEA, Alterra,NERC and CNRS

Objectives
To constrain values of model internal parameters in a way that combines both improved process understanding expressed in the models and observations assembled in WP1.  The improved models and parameter ranges are to be used within WP3 and WP4.

Work Description

Analyse and inter-compare existing TEMs used and developed by participants. Validate TEMs against direct and satellite oberservations prepared in WP1.

Identify key parameters, the methods of their assignment (e.g. by ecosystem type) and estimate a priori probability density functions of those parameters based on available data and literature survey.

Explore probability density function (PDF) in parameter space, accounting for a priori PDF of the TEMs internal parameters, driving variables and observables to be compared to TEM predictions.  This will be done using a Monte-Carlo approach.

Analyse PDF of TEM parameters after validation, look for large deviations from a priori PDFs, and explore possible model improvements.

Re-run Monte-Carlo simulations and exploration of PDF in parameter space with improved models. Carry-out Monte Carlo simulation on the full range of parameter spans for the inventory approach.

Analyse results with respect to key ecosystem types and develop database to be used with WP3 and WP4.

Deliverables:

D2.1 Report on improved process representation in the TEMs and the inventory model.
D2.2 Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM.

Milestones:

Month 6. Identification of key processes and estimation of parameter uncertainties
Month 12. First Monte-Carlo simulations with site data and validation.
Month 18. Improved process descriptions based on prior analysis.
Month 21. Second Monte-Carlo simulations with improved models and re-estimation of uncertainty bounds of model parameters.
Month 24. Biome-dependent parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM       
Month 24. Comparison between TEM and inventory-based approachesetween TEM and inventory-based approaches

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