|| Lead Contractor:
Institutes: MetO, CEA, Alterra,NERC and CNRS
To constrain values of model internal parameters in a way that combines
both improved process understanding expressed in the models and
observations assembled in WP1. The
improved models and parameter ranges are to be used within WP3 and WP4.
Analyse and inter-compare existing TEMs used and developed by
participants. Validate TEMs against direct and satellite oberservations
prepared in WP1.
Identify key parameters, the methods of their assignment (e.g. by
ecosystem type) and estimate a priori probability density functions of
those parameters based on available data and literature survey.
Explore probability density function (PDF) in parameter space,
accounting for a priori PDF of the TEMs internal parameters, driving
variables and observables to be compared to TEM predictions. This
will be done using a Monte-Carlo approach.
Analyse PDF of TEM parameters after validation, look for large
deviations from a priori PDFs, and explore possible model improvements.
Re-run Monte-Carlo simulations and exploration of PDF in parameter
space with improved models. Carry-out Monte Carlo simulation on the full
range of parameter spans for the inventory approach.
Analyse results with respect to key ecosystem types and develop
database to be used with WP3 and WP4.
D2.1 Report on improved process representation in the TEMs and the
D2.2 Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters plus uncertainty bounds for
Month 6. Identification of key processes and estimation of parameter
Month 12. First Monte-Carlo simulations with site data and validation.
Month 18. Improved process descriptions based on prior analysis.
Month 21. Second Monte-Carlo simulations with improved models and
re-estimation of uncertainty bounds of model parameters.
Month 24. Biome-dependent parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each
Month 24. Comparison between TEM and inventory-based approachesetween
TEM and inventory-based approaches